2020 House · NM-2
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 403 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 48%
R+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.25% · Republican 53.70%
R+7.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 48 = -2.00
- Actual margin = 46.253 − 53.703 = -7.450
- Signed miss = -2.00 − (-7.450) = 5.449
- Absolute miss = |5.449| = 5.449
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72400, race ID 8090 (538 database).