2020 House · NM-3
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 347 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 58% · Republican 35%
D+23.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.68% · Republican 41.32%
D+17.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 58 − 35 = 23.00
- Actual margin = 58.681 − 41.319 = 17.362
- Signed miss = 23.00 − (17.362) = 5.638
- Absolute miss = |5.638| = 5.638
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72400, race ID 8091 (538 database).