2020 President · VA
Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 802 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 42%
D+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 54.11% · Republican 44.00%
D+10.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 42 = 11.00
- Actual margin = 54.110 − 43.996 = 10.114
- Signed miss = 11.00 − (10.114) = 0.886
- Absolute miss = |0.886| = 0.886
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72402, race ID 6256 (538 database).