2020 Senate · MN
Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 770 respondents · IVR/Text
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 42%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.74% · Republican 43.50%
D+5.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 42 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 48.737 − 43.498 = 5.239
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (5.239) = 3.762
- Absolute miss = |3.762| = 3.762
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72405, race ID 6281 (538 database).