2020 President · MI
SSRS · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 907 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 41%
D+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.62% · Republican 47.84%
D+2.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 41 = 12.00
- Actual margin = 50.621 − 47.837 = 2.784
- Signed miss = 12.00 − (2.784) = 9.216
- Absolute miss = |9.216| = 9.216
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72416, race ID 6233 (538 database).