2020 President · FL
ABC News/The Washington Post · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 824 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 50%
R+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%
R+3.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 50 = -2.00
- Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
- Signed miss = -2.00 − (-3.359) = 1.358
- Absolute miss = |1.358| = 1.358
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72476, race ID 6220 (538 database).