2020 President · MI
EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 41%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.62% · Republican 47.84%
D+2.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 41 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 50.621 − 47.837 = 2.784
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (2.784) = 4.216
- Absolute miss = |4.216| = 4.216
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72483, race ID 6233 (538 database).