2020 President · FL
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2020-10-31 (3 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 47%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%
R+3.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-3.359) = 2.358
- Absolute miss = |2.358| = 2.358
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72491, race ID 6220 (538 database).