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2020 President · IA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 400 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46.1% · Republican 47.8%

R+1.7

The certified result

Democrat 44.89% · Republican 53.09%

R+8.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.1 − 47.8 = -1.70
  2. Actual margin = 44.892 − 53.089 = -8.197
  3. Signed miss = -1.70 − (-8.197) = 6.498
  4. Absolute miss = |6.498| = 6.498

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72492, race ID 6223 (538 database).