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2020 President · MI

Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 817 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 52.1% · Republican 45%

D+7.1

The certified result

Democrat 50.62% · Republican 47.84%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.1 − 45 = 7.10
  2. Actual margin = 50.621 − 47.837 = 2.784
  3. Signed miss = 7.10 − (2.784) = 4.316
  4. Absolute miss = |4.316| = 4.316

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72493, race ID 6233 (538 database).