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2020 President · AZ

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 732 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 45.9%

D+2.1

The certified result

Democrat 49.37% · Republican 49.06%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 45.9 = 2.10
  2. Actual margin = 49.365 − 49.056 = 0.309
  3. Signed miss = 2.10 − (0.309) = 1.791
  4. Absolute miss = |1.791| = 1.791

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72495, race ID 6214 (538 database).