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2020 President · NV

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 720 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48.9% · Republican 47.2%

D+1.7

The certified result

Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.67%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.9 − 47.2 = 1.70
  2. Actual margin = 50.057 − 47.666 = 2.391
  3. Signed miss = 1.70 − (2.391) = -0.691
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.691| = 0.691

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72496, race ID 6244 (538 database).