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2020 President · national

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2020-10-28 (6 days before the election) · 1,403 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 44%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.07% · Republican 46.67%

D+4.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 44 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.068 − 46.672 = 4.396
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (4.396) = 5.604
  4. Absolute miss = |5.604| = 5.604

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72506, race ID 6210 (538 database).