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2020 Senate · MI

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 654 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 44%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.90% · Republican 48.22%

D+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 44 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.903 − 48.218 = 1.685
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (1.685) = 5.315
  4. Absolute miss = |5.315| = 5.315

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72508, race ID 6280 (538 database).