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2020 President · ME

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 611 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 54.3% · Republican 42.9%

D+11.4

The certified result

Democrat 53.09% · Republican 44.02%

D+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54.3 − 42.9 = 11.40
  2. Actual margin = 53.092 − 44.021 = 9.071
  3. Signed miss = 11.40 − (9.071) = 2.329
  4. Absolute miss = |2.329| = 2.329

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72511, race ID 6232 (538 database).