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2020 President · PA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47.4% · Republican 48.7%

R+1.3

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 48.84%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.4 − 48.7 = -1.30
  2. Actual margin = 50.008 − 48.844 = 1.164
  3. Signed miss = -1.30 − (1.164) = -2.465
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.465| = 2.465

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72514, race ID 6249 (538 database).