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2020 Senate · NC

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 855 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 50.4% · Republican 47.2%

D+3.2

The certified result

Democrat 46.94% · Republican 48.69%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.4 − 47.2 = 3.20
  2. Actual margin = 46.940 − 48.687 = -1.747
  3. Signed miss = 3.20 − (-1.747) = 4.947
  4. Absolute miss = |4.947| = 4.947

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72515, race ID 6284 (538 database).