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2020 Governor · NC

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 855 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 54.7% · Republican 44.8%

D+9.9

The certified result

Democrat 51.52% · Republican 47.01%

D+4.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54.7 − 44.8 = 9.90
  2. Actual margin = 51.516 − 47.005 = 4.511
  3. Signed miss = 9.90 − (4.511) = 5.390
  4. Absolute miss = |5.390| = 5.390

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72515, race ID 7824 (538 database).