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2020 President · FL

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 849 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 51.9% · Republican 46.1%

D+5.8

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.9 − 46.1 = 5.80
  2. Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
  3. Signed miss = 5.80 − (-3.359) = 9.158
  4. Absolute miss = |9.158| = 9.158

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72516, race ID 6220 (538 database).