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2020 Senate · GA

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 749 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48.9% · Republican 47.6%

D+1.3

The certified result

Democrat 47.95% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.9 − 47.6 = 1.30
  2. Actual margin = 47.949 − 49.728 = -1.779
  3. Signed miss = 1.30 − (-1.779) = 3.079
  4. Absolute miss = |3.079| = 3.079

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72517, race ID 6271 (538 database).