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2020 President · TX

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 763 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48.7% · Republican 49.7%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.48% · Republican 52.06%

R+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.7 − 49.7 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.479 − 52.058 = -5.579
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-5.579) = 4.579
  4. Absolute miss = |4.579| = 4.579

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72518, race ID 6254 (538 database).