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2020 President · GA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2020-10-13 (21 days before the election) · 1,456 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.47% · Republican 49.24%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.473 − 49.237 = 0.236
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (0.236) = 0.764
  4. Absolute miss = |0.764| = 0.764

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72520, race ID 6221 (538 database).