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2020 President · TX

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2020-10-13 (21 days before the election) · 2,947 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.48% · Republican 52.06%

R+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.479 − 52.058 = -5.579
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-5.579) = 3.579
  4. Absolute miss = |3.579| = 3.579

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72523, race ID 6254 (538 database).