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2020 President · GA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2020-11-01 (2 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46.1% · Republican 48.1%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.47% · Republican 49.24%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.1 − 48.1 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.473 − 49.237 = 0.236
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (0.236) = -2.236
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.236| = 2.236

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72579, race ID 6221 (538 database).