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2020 Senate · CO

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 709 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 45%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.50% · Republican 44.18%

D+9.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 45 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.499 − 44.178 = 9.321
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (9.321) = -0.321
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.321| = 0.321

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72584, race ID 6269 (538 database).