Skip to content

2020 Senate · AZ

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 1,195 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 46%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.16% · Republican 48.81%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 46 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.157 − 48.808 = 2.349
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (2.349) = 5.651
  4. Absolute miss = |5.651| = 5.651

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72585, race ID 6268 (538 database).