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2020 President · FL

Targoz Market Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 1,027 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50.8% · Republican 47.1%

D+3.7

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.8 − 47.1 = 3.70
  2. Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
  3. Signed miss = 3.70 − (-3.359) = 7.058
  4. Absolute miss = |7.058| = 7.058

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72589, race ID 6220 (538 database).