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2020 President · AZ

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 1,059 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.4% · Republican 46.1%

D+2.3

The certified result

Democrat 49.37% · Republican 49.06%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.4 − 46.1 = 2.30
  2. Actual margin = 49.365 − 49.056 = 0.309
  3. Signed miss = 2.30 − (0.309) = 1.991
  4. Absolute miss = |1.991| = 1.991

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72602, race ID 6214 (538 database).