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2020 President · CO

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 727 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53.8% · Republican 40.9%

D+12.9

The certified result

Democrat 55.40% · Republican 41.90%

D+13.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53.8 − 40.9 = 12.90
  2. Actual margin = 55.400 − 41.898 = 13.502
  3. Signed miss = 12.90 − (13.502) = -0.602
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.602| = 0.602

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72603, race ID 6216 (538 database).