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2020 President · FL

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 4,451 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51.5% · Republican 45.4%

D+6.1

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.5 − 45.4 = 6.10
  2. Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
  3. Signed miss = 6.10 − (-3.359) = 9.458
  4. Absolute miss = |9.458| = 9.458

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72604, race ID 6220 (538 database).