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2020 Senate · GA

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 1,743 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46.5% · Republican 45.5%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.95% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.5 − 45.5 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.949 − 49.728 = -1.779
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-1.779) = 2.779
  4. Absolute miss = |2.779| = 2.779

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72605, race ID 6271 (538 database).