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2020 President · IN

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 1,147 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 53.4%

R+11.4

The certified result

Democrat 40.96% · Republican 57.02%

R+16.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 53.4 = -11.40
  2. Actual margin = 40.962 − 57.021 = -16.059
  3. Signed miss = -11.40 − (-16.059) = 4.659
  4. Absolute miss = |4.659| = 4.659

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72606, race ID 6226 (538 database).