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2020 President · MI

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 1,736 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51.8% · Republican 44.5%

D+7.3

The certified result

Democrat 50.62% · Republican 47.84%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.8 − 44.5 = 7.30
  2. Actual margin = 50.621 − 47.837 = 2.784
  3. Signed miss = 7.30 − (2.784) = 4.516
  4. Absolute miss = |4.516| = 4.516

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72607, race ID 6233 (538 database).