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2020 Senate · MI

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 1,736 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.8% · Republican 43.1%

D+5.7

The certified result

Democrat 49.90% · Republican 48.22%

D+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.8 − 43.1 = 5.70
  2. Actual margin = 49.903 − 48.218 = 1.685
  3. Signed miss = 5.70 − (1.685) = 4.015
  4. Absolute miss = |4.015| = 4.015

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72607, race ID 6280 (538 database).