2020 President · NC
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 1,982 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 49.1% · Republican 48.4%
D+0.7
The certified result
Democrat 48.59% · Republican 49.93%
R+1.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49.1 − 48.4 = 0.70
- Actual margin = 48.586 − 49.934 = -1.348
- Signed miss = 0.70 − (-1.348) = 2.048
- Absolute miss = |2.048| = 2.048
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72610, race ID 6238 (538 database).