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2020 Senate · NC

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 1,982 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.4% · Republican 42.5%

D+4.9

The certified result

Democrat 46.94% · Republican 48.69%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.4 − 42.5 = 4.90
  2. Actual margin = 46.940 − 48.687 = -1.747
  3. Signed miss = 4.90 − (-1.747) = 6.647
  4. Absolute miss = |6.647| = 6.647

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72610, race ID 6284 (538 database).