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2020 President · OH

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 1,041 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 44.4% · Republican 49.2%

R+4.8

The certified result

Democrat 45.24% · Republican 53.27%

R+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.4 − 49.2 = -4.80
  2. Actual margin = 45.239 − 53.271 = -8.032
  3. Signed miss = -4.80 − (-8.032) = 3.232
  4. Absolute miss = |3.232| = 3.232

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72616, race ID 6246 (538 database).