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2020 Senate · MI

Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2020-10-31 (3 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 37%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.90% · Republican 48.22%

D+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 37 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.903 − 48.218 = 1.685
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (1.685) = 13.315
  4. Absolute miss = |13.315| = 13.315

The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72624, race ID 6280 (538 database).