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2020 Senate · MN

Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2020-10-31 (3 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 39%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 43.50%

D+5.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 39 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 43.498 = 5.239
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (5.239) = 5.762
  4. Absolute miss = |5.762| = 5.762

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72625, race ID 6281 (538 database).