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2020 President · NJ

Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2020-10-31 (3 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 38%

D+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.33% · Republican 41.40%

D+15.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 38 = 18.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.334 − 41.397 = 15.937
  3. Signed miss = 18.00 − (15.937) = 2.062
  4. Absolute miss = |2.062| = 2.062

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72626, race ID 6242 (538 database).