Skip to content

2020 President · national

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 1,500 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.07% · Republican 46.67%

D+4.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.068 − 46.672 = 4.396
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (4.396) = -3.396
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.396| = 3.396

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72631, race ID 6210 (538 database).