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2020 Senate · AZ

Data Orbital · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47.1% · Republican 46%

D+1.1

The certified result

Democrat 51.16% · Republican 48.81%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.1 − 46 = 1.10
  2. Actual margin = 51.157 − 48.808 = 2.349
  3. Signed miss = 1.10 − (2.349) = -1.249
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.249| = 1.249

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72632, race ID 6268 (538 database).