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2020 President · PA

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 1,062 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45.9% · Republican 47.8%

R+1.9

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 48.84%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.9 − 47.8 = -1.90
  2. Actual margin = 50.008 − 48.844 = 1.164
  3. Signed miss = -1.90 − (1.164) = -3.065
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.065| = 3.065

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72641, race ID 6249 (538 database).