2020 President · national
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 1,516 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 39%
D+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.07% · Republican 46.67%
D+4.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 39 = 11.00
- Actual margin = 51.068 − 46.672 = 4.396
- Signed miss = 11.00 − (4.396) = 6.604
- Absolute miss = |6.604| = 6.604
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72654, race ID 6210 (538 database).