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2020 President · OH

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 1,440 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 43%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.24% · Republican 53.27%

R+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 43 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.239 − 53.271 = -8.032
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-8.032) = 12.032
  4. Absolute miss = |12.032| = 12.032

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72655, race ID 6246 (538 database).