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2020 President · FL

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 670 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 46%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 46 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-3.359) = 7.358
  4. Absolute miss = |7.358| = 7.358

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72658, race ID 6220 (538 database).