2020 President · MA
MassINC Polling Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 929 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 62% · Republican 28%
D+34.0
The certified result
Democrat 65.60% · Republican 32.14%
D+33.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 62 − 28 = 34.00
- Actual margin = 65.600 − 32.142 = 33.458
- Signed miss = 34.00 − (33.458) = 0.542
- Absolute miss = |0.542| = 0.542
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72715, race ID 6230 (538 database).