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2020 President · FL

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2020-11-01 (2 days before the election) · 400 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 48.2%

R+1.2

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 48.2 = -1.20
  2. Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
  3. Signed miss = -1.20 − (-3.359) = 2.158
  4. Absolute miss = |2.158| = 2.158

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72722, race ID 6220 (538 database).