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2020 President · KS

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 1,121 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 55%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.56% · Republican 56.21%

R+14.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 55 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.560 − 56.213 = -14.653
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-14.653) = 0.653
  4. Absolute miss = |0.653| = 0.653

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72723, race ID 6227 (538 database).