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2020 Senate · KS

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 1,121 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 51%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.79% · Republican 53.22%

R+11.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 51 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.786 − 53.223 = -11.437
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-11.437) = 5.437
  4. Absolute miss = |5.437| = 5.437

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72723, race ID 6275 (538 database).